In late June, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group that has been fighting for Russia in Ukraine, seized control of Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, then began an armed march toward Moscow.
Prigozhin has been a harsh critic of Russian military leadership and claimed he was trying to force a change in leadership. The insurrection ended with Prigozhin agreeing to go to Belarus in exchange for avoiding any criminal prosecution against himself and his soldiers.
Now, however, his whereabouts are unknown, and he may have returned to Russia.
Richard Tempest, a professor of Slavic languages and literatures and an expert on Russian president Vladimir Putin and charismatic politics, spoke with News Bureau arts and humanities editor Jodi Heckel about the rebellion.
What is the Wagner group and what has been its role in the war in Ukraine and elsewhere?
Wagner is a private military group modeled on Blackwater. It advances Russian interests, it is paid by the government, and it provides Russia with plausible deniability when it operates in Africa, for instance. Wagner attracts highly trained military personnel so it can be particularly effective. It has been deployed in Syria, Mozambique, the Central African Republic and Mali.
Until very recently, the Russian system worked with a number of “power” agencies and institutions that would compete and carve out particular financial empires. Putin refereed the competing interests, making his own position absolutely essential. He was the arbiter-in-chief. As part of this very dynamic setup – and also to enhance and complement the Russian army – Wagner was one of the semi-private military organizations with up to 35,000-40,000 armed men.
Who is Prigozhin and what was the aim of his rebellion?
Prigozhin is an old associate of Putin and a career criminal. He’s a colorful personality with a brutal turn of phrase and no military expertise. That said, he is an able man.
This attempted coup by Wagner was certainly not something that was spontaneous. It had to be a pre-agreed-upon operation with possibly collaborators in the military or some of the security services.
You don’t play these kinds of games because you are displeased with operational efficiency. You don’t risk your life to make things work better. He was making a bid for power. He criticized the war in Ukraine and therefore, by implication, Putin. He and the alliance he represents may have been keen to wind down the war and find a way to get out of it.
Why did he turn back?
We can assume that pressure was brought to bear on the families of the Wagner group members. They threatened their families. There’s a lot we don’t know. The Wagnerites met very little resistance as they marched to Rostov and then to Moscow, but they didn’t get a lot of overt support from Russian military units or from the power players at the top of the system. There was no indication that a substantial part of the elite was openly joining this coup, as opposed to having some sort of behind-the-scenes involvement. Still, many prominent figures kept mum or even disappeared from the public space. That was another reason why Wagner probably turned back. When you want to take power, not only do you have to have allies, but the allies have to be prepared to make themselves known.
How much does this weaken Putin?
For the first time, Putin had to confront major armed dissent. It showed this kind of attack on central decision-making can actually succeed.
On the face of it, Putin won. He’s still in power, he’s the one who’s controlling the narrative and he’s weathered this particular crisis. I would certainly not count him out. But his standing has been damaged.
Putin threatened major retaliation and identified the Wagner soldiers as traitors, then he did nothing. These people got off scot-free, which doesn’t project the image he’d like to have. We now know that five days after the attempted coup, Putin met with its leaders, including Prigozhin, in the Kremlin. What this incident shows very clearly is a state in which the ruler can override the constitution and can override the criminal code and can pardon a person who has just committed treason against the state. You can go to jail in Russia for wearing blue and yellow, the colors of Ukraine, in the street. But commit state treason and you go to Belarus.
The anecdotal evidence is that the local population in Rostov was sympathetic to Wagner. The governors in the area and other agencies didn’t seem to offer any resistance. That leads analysts to speculate that Putin’s hold on the system is not as strong as we thought.
What do you think the future is for Putin’s rule in Russia?
Putin is getting on in years. Rumor has it that he’s not in very good health. This incident shows how this system might end or be transformed into something else. I think what will happen is not some sort of massive uprising. The change in government will come from within the current elites. There will be a rearrangement there.
The system that Putin constructed is a personal system. It centers on Putin and his personality cult, his charisma, as well as his position as the essential interlocutor for all the competing interests and ambitions inside his famous “vertical of power.” Anyone who comes after him will have to fill in those particular blanks.
How will this affect the war in Ukraine?
Wagner was one of the really effective units of Russians operating on the front. Some of these Wagner members will be incorporated into the Russian army as professional soldiers, but in the short term, Prigozhin’s pronunciamiento has diminished its military capability in Ukraine.
The Russian army has always been very good in defense, all the way back to the time of Napoleon, and right now the stalemate is continuing. The Russians seem to be holding their own. So far.
Jodi Heckel, Illinois News Bureau
Editor’s note: This story first appeared on the Illinois News Bureau website.
To contact Richard Tempest, email rtempest@illinois.edu.